US-TALIBAN Talks And India’s Options
The eighth round of US-Taliban talks in Doha ended on a positive note of an eventual peace agreement that would allow the withdrawal of US and NATO troops from Afghanistan within an agreed time frame. In return, Taliban would undertake not to host international terrorist groups like the Al Qaeda and ISIS in Afghanistan. It will also hold talks with Afghanistan government to work out a power sharing formula that would ultimately bring peace and stability to the war torn country.
The Taliban’s Doha office was opened in 2013 to facilitate talks with the US. There were few rounds of initial engagement but without result, as each party adopted a maximalist position. After the US and NATO concluded their combat mission in Afghanistan in 2014 and transferred the combat responsibility to Afghanistan’s fledgling military, the possibility of dialogue gained ground given the ground situation. Taliban controlled more than 50 per cent of the territory and Afghan forces were no match to them. It was realised that without negotiating with Taliban and giving them a share in power, peace is unlikely to prevail which in turn would tie down the US forces in an unending war. President Trump who promised to bring the US troops back from Afghanistan appointed Zalmay Khalilzad as the US Special envoy to Afghanistan to facilitate talks between Afghan government and Taliban to facilitate US’s exit from Afghanistan.
There are several layers to the Afghan peace process. Apart from direct US-Taliban talks, several countries in the region having vital stakes are engaged with Taliban. China held several rounds of talks with Taliban in which Pakistan participated even before the US initiated direct talks with Taliban. There is also a consultative mechanism known as Moscow format where Taliban representatives were invited. Apart from these initiatives, there is a trilateral dialogue mechanism between Pakistan, Afghanistan and the United states; China- Pakistan- Afghanistan trilateral; US- Russia and China trilateral consultation mechanism to which Pakistan was invited for the first time in July this year; and the Russia-China-India trilateral on Afghanistan. Apart from these regional initiatives and the Doha mechanism there is the Istanbul process known as ‘Heart of Asia’. All these meetings attest to the fact that several countries having stake in the future of Afghanistan would not like to be side-lined in the political process that would eventually see the exit of foreign troops and rehabilitation of Taliban.
As US-Taliban talk’s inches towards a possible agreement, there are several concerns regarding the future of Afghanistan and nature of the regime that is likely to takeover. Taliban which participated in intra Afghan dialogue co-hosted by Germany and Qatar, in Doha between Afghan politicians, civil society members, including women who participated in their individual capacities. Taliban has assured that it will not revert to a regressive regime; would not shelter militants and emphasised on zero civilian casualty but Sher Mohammad Abbas Stanikzai, the Taliban's chief negotiator said ‘war will continue’.
India is Afghanistan’s fifth largest donor and has invested US$ 3 billion in development projects in the country. New Delhi is keenly watching the unfolding developments. In spite of US engaging India through Khalilzad, India is wary of the possible worsening of security situation in Afghanistan that may see a revival of the 1991 type of civil war, witnessed after the Soviet withdrawal. From the very beginning, India has firmly emphasised on a “Afghan owned and Afghan led’ peace process to determine the political future of Afghanistan.
The conditional withdrawal of US troops would lead to the crucial second phase of the peace process which would involve intra-Afghan dialogue. The path to peace in Afghanistan is however, strewn with uncertainty about the direction of Taliban’s dialogue with the Afghan government. This will determine the contours of Afghan politics and the space that would be available to external forces to gain a strategic edge in regional geo-politics.
Script: Dr. Smruti s pattanaik, Strategic Analyst on South Asia
The Taliban’s Doha office was opened in 2013 to facilitate talks with the US. There were few rounds of initial engagement but without result, as each party adopted a maximalist position. After the US and NATO concluded their combat mission in Afghanistan in 2014 and transferred the combat responsibility to Afghanistan’s fledgling military, the possibility of dialogue gained ground given the ground situation. Taliban controlled more than 50 per cent of the territory and Afghan forces were no match to them. It was realised that without negotiating with Taliban and giving them a share in power, peace is unlikely to prevail which in turn would tie down the US forces in an unending war. President Trump who promised to bring the US troops back from Afghanistan appointed Zalmay Khalilzad as the US Special envoy to Afghanistan to facilitate talks between Afghan government and Taliban to facilitate US’s exit from Afghanistan.
There are several layers to the Afghan peace process. Apart from direct US-Taliban talks, several countries in the region having vital stakes are engaged with Taliban. China held several rounds of talks with Taliban in which Pakistan participated even before the US initiated direct talks with Taliban. There is also a consultative mechanism known as Moscow format where Taliban representatives were invited. Apart from these initiatives, there is a trilateral dialogue mechanism between Pakistan, Afghanistan and the United states; China- Pakistan- Afghanistan trilateral; US- Russia and China trilateral consultation mechanism to which Pakistan was invited for the first time in July this year; and the Russia-China-India trilateral on Afghanistan. Apart from these regional initiatives and the Doha mechanism there is the Istanbul process known as ‘Heart of Asia’. All these meetings attest to the fact that several countries having stake in the future of Afghanistan would not like to be side-lined in the political process that would eventually see the exit of foreign troops and rehabilitation of Taliban.
As US-Taliban talk’s inches towards a possible agreement, there are several concerns regarding the future of Afghanistan and nature of the regime that is likely to takeover. Taliban which participated in intra Afghan dialogue co-hosted by Germany and Qatar, in Doha between Afghan politicians, civil society members, including women who participated in their individual capacities. Taliban has assured that it will not revert to a regressive regime; would not shelter militants and emphasised on zero civilian casualty but Sher Mohammad Abbas Stanikzai, the Taliban's chief negotiator said ‘war will continue’.
India is Afghanistan’s fifth largest donor and has invested US$ 3 billion in development projects in the country. New Delhi is keenly watching the unfolding developments. In spite of US engaging India through Khalilzad, India is wary of the possible worsening of security situation in Afghanistan that may see a revival of the 1991 type of civil war, witnessed after the Soviet withdrawal. From the very beginning, India has firmly emphasised on a “Afghan owned and Afghan led’ peace process to determine the political future of Afghanistan.
The conditional withdrawal of US troops would lead to the crucial second phase of the peace process which would involve intra-Afghan dialogue. The path to peace in Afghanistan is however, strewn with uncertainty about the direction of Taliban’s dialogue with the Afghan government. This will determine the contours of Afghan politics and the space that would be available to external forces to gain a strategic edge in regional geo-politics.
Script: Dr. Smruti s pattanaik, Strategic Analyst on South Asia
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