Simmering Tensions In The South China Sea
With simmering tensions in its waters, the South China Sea dispute is once again in the news. There is every likelihood that the issue of the South China Sea dispute will figure prominently in the deliberations at the 9th East Asia Summit Foreign Ministers’ Meet in Bangkok, which is being attended by India’s External Affairs Minister Dr. S. Jaishankar.
In a recent spate of events, in the first week of July, 2019, Chinese survey ship HaiyangDizhi 8, escorted by two Chinese coast guard vessels, undertook a maritime seismic survey within the 200 nautical miles of Vietnam’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) causing anxieties across the region particularly in Hanoi.
China, Taiwan, and key Southeast Asian countries (Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Vietnam) have overlapping territorial claims in the South China Sea. This is one of the protracted maritime boundary disputes with China at the centre.
A careful analysis of the trajectory of Chinese behaviour in the South China Sea demonstrates that China is less likely to give up its claims and give concessions to the other parties involved. While the Philippines under President Rodrigo Duterte has opted to downplay its claims, Vietnam still holds a firm position on the South China Sea dispute with regard to its maritime boundary. The importance of the South China Sea thus, cannot be over-emphasised. It is rich in natural resources, at least 11 billion barrels of oil and 190 trillion cubic feet of natural gas beneath the seabed, important sea line of communication and 80 percent of China’s oil imports pass through it.
Exercising restraint for a long time, Vietnam has again gone back to its approach of internationalising the issue. This time, it has sought international support on the issue. Vietnam also seems to be getting more supportive of greater efforts under the quadrilateral security dialogue.
India is neither a party to the dispute nordoes not align with any one country on it, but New Delhi has major stakes in the Sea. The South China Sea is important for India because of the commercial stakes of India’s Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC). India’s official position has been to “protect freedom of navigation, over-flight and unimpeded lawful commerce in the international waters in accordance with international laws, notably the United Nations’ Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) 1982”.
Vietnam has always welcomed India’s increased presence in the Southeast Asian region. India and Vietnam have share cordial ties and India is considered a reliable and natural partner to Vietnam. India is one of the three countries to have comprehensive strategic partnership with Vietnam. There is high-level political trust between the two countries. India is considered a responsible power among the Southeast Asian nations and is an important part of the ASEAN-led mechanisms such as East Asia Summit, ASEAN Regional Forum, etc. Given India’s stature and India’s robust ties between both Vietnam and China, it is natural for Vietnam to look towards India for protecting one of its’ most important sea lines of communication.
Departing from their earlier positions of insistence on multilateral negotiations with China, the Philippines and even Vietnam are amenable to bilateral talks now- the preferred method of negotiations for China.
While India and Vietnam are strategic partners; Indiahas maintained positive momentum in its relations with China. India has always highlighted the importance of ASEAN centrality and is pushing for an early signing of the ‘code of conduct’ (CoC) on South China Sea; while urging all the countries to maintain status quo. Though CoC is not a legally binding document, it will act as a confidence building measure between China and the other Southeast Asian claimants. It is also in the interest of all the parties involved to conform to the UNCLOS.
Script: Sana Hashmi,Analyst on East Asian and Eurasian Affairs
In a recent spate of events, in the first week of July, 2019, Chinese survey ship HaiyangDizhi 8, escorted by two Chinese coast guard vessels, undertook a maritime seismic survey within the 200 nautical miles of Vietnam’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) causing anxieties across the region particularly in Hanoi.
China, Taiwan, and key Southeast Asian countries (Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Vietnam) have overlapping territorial claims in the South China Sea. This is one of the protracted maritime boundary disputes with China at the centre.
A careful analysis of the trajectory of Chinese behaviour in the South China Sea demonstrates that China is less likely to give up its claims and give concessions to the other parties involved. While the Philippines under President Rodrigo Duterte has opted to downplay its claims, Vietnam still holds a firm position on the South China Sea dispute with regard to its maritime boundary. The importance of the South China Sea thus, cannot be over-emphasised. It is rich in natural resources, at least 11 billion barrels of oil and 190 trillion cubic feet of natural gas beneath the seabed, important sea line of communication and 80 percent of China’s oil imports pass through it.
Exercising restraint for a long time, Vietnam has again gone back to its approach of internationalising the issue. This time, it has sought international support on the issue. Vietnam also seems to be getting more supportive of greater efforts under the quadrilateral security dialogue.
India is neither a party to the dispute nordoes not align with any one country on it, but New Delhi has major stakes in the Sea. The South China Sea is important for India because of the commercial stakes of India’s Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC). India’s official position has been to “protect freedom of navigation, over-flight and unimpeded lawful commerce in the international waters in accordance with international laws, notably the United Nations’ Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) 1982”.
Vietnam has always welcomed India’s increased presence in the Southeast Asian region. India and Vietnam have share cordial ties and India is considered a reliable and natural partner to Vietnam. India is one of the three countries to have comprehensive strategic partnership with Vietnam. There is high-level political trust between the two countries. India is considered a responsible power among the Southeast Asian nations and is an important part of the ASEAN-led mechanisms such as East Asia Summit, ASEAN Regional Forum, etc. Given India’s stature and India’s robust ties between both Vietnam and China, it is natural for Vietnam to look towards India for protecting one of its’ most important sea lines of communication.
Departing from their earlier positions of insistence on multilateral negotiations with China, the Philippines and even Vietnam are amenable to bilateral talks now- the preferred method of negotiations for China.
While India and Vietnam are strategic partners; Indiahas maintained positive momentum in its relations with China. India has always highlighted the importance of ASEAN centrality and is pushing for an early signing of the ‘code of conduct’ (CoC) on South China Sea; while urging all the countries to maintain status quo. Though CoC is not a legally binding document, it will act as a confidence building measure between China and the other Southeast Asian claimants. It is also in the interest of all the parties involved to conform to the UNCLOS.
Script: Sana Hashmi,Analyst on East Asian and Eurasian Affairs
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