PM Modi’s Swearing-In Signals India’s Role In Indo-Pacific Region

The invitations to leaders of Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical & Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC), Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and Indian Ocean Region countries for Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s swearing in ceremony for the second term in office showcased India's intent to play a key role in the Indo-Pacific region as a major power.

Bangladesh President Abdul Hamid attended the swearing-in ceremony. He also led a delegation, in an acknowledgement of Dhaka’s current state of exceptional ties with India. Other BIMSTEC member-states, too, sent top leaders for the occasion, with most visiting dignitaries holding talks with Mr. Modi informally. These meetings also reviewed the current state of bilateral ties and the way forward in the Prime Minister’s second term.

While Nepal and Bhutan were represented by their Prime Ministers KP Sharma ‘Oli’ and Lotay Tshering, respectively; Sri Lanka was represented by its President, Maithripala Sirisena. The political crisis in Sri Lanka last year and the Easter Sunday terror attacks is a matter of concern for New Delhi. Prime Minister Modi’s meeting with Mr. Sirisena focused on security partnership, among other issues. Since his election in 2015, President Sirisena has developed a good chemistry with the Indian Prime Minister and has been a frequent visitor to New Delhi. The Sri Lankan Presidential polls are scheduled next January. Myanmar President Win Myint attended the function and also held informal talks with the Prime Minister.

Thailand, whose Prime Minister was also being sworn in on the same day as Prime Minister Modi, deputed a special envoy for the ceremony. The Indian Prime Minister is expected to visit Thailand in November for the India-ASEAN and East Asia Summits. BIMSTEC has been a priority area for the Modi government amid Pakistan's intransigence disallowing SAARC to function smoothly. Mr. Modi had organised an informal BIMSTEC meet and BIMSTEC outreach with BRICS on the side lines of BRICS Summit in Goa in October 2016. Since 2017, BIMSTEC National Security Advisers have been meeting regularly eyeing to combat transnational crimes and terror in the region. BIMSTEC Motor Vehicle Agreement is an ambitious plan towards regional connectivity in South and South-East Asia.

The Modi government has consciously cultivated BIMSTEC member states in the absence of the effectiveness of SAARC due to Pakistan’s refusal to act on cross-border terror and agree on a connectivity plan. BIMSTEC presents an opportunity for India to connect with Bay of Bengal countries and South-east Asia, as part of its ‘Act East’ policy and marks India’s presence amid China’s inroads into the region. BIMSTEC is strategically significant for India as China is making huge inroads in the Bay of Bengal region, often considered India’s ‘zone of influence’. The Bay of Bengal is the link to the Malacca Straits, a major trading route for China, which has also undertaken many projects in BIMSTEC countries except in India and Bhutan. The Bay of Bengal is also the route for about 25 per cent of global trade and has huge untapped resources especially in the energy sector-massive reserve of natural gas, the future of power supply. India's robust relations with other BIMSTEC member states will give it extra leverage in the Bay of Bengal region over China.

Simultaneously, an invite to the Shanghai Cooperation Organization’s (SCO) current Chair Kyrgyzstan, signals India’s intent to expand presence in Central Asia and wider Eurasia, where China too has made heavy inroads. There is a desire among Central Asian states that India should play a wider role in the region, which is expected to give them more strategic options. There is a possibility that Prime Minister Modi might meet all the Central Asian leaders in Bishkek on the side-lines of SCO Summit later this month.

Prime Minister Pravind Jugnauth of Mauritius attending the swearing-in ceremony of Mr. Modi, signals Mauritius is India’s closest partner in the western Indian Ocean arena. It also shows New Delhi’s desire to remain a net security provider in the region and push for optimum use of ocean resources.

Script: Dipanjan Roy Chaudhury, Diplomatic Correspondent

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