Is The Persian Gulf Heading Towards a Conflict?
The recent war of words involving the US and its regional allies on the one hand and Iran on the other has led to heightened tensions in the Persian Gulf. While the problem between Washington and Tehran is long and complex, the recent escalation started with the US withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPoA) or the Iran nuclear deal in May 2018. At that time, President Trump had accused Iran of destabilising the region and pursuing nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles despite signing the nuclear deal. The Trump administration has since re-imposed unilateral economic sanctions on Iran with an intention to extract “maximum pressure” on the Tehran to renegotiate the deal. However, the Iran has refused to do so and on the first anniversary of the US withdrawal on May 8, 2019, urged the European countries, Russia and China to do more to help ease the pressure on Iranian economy due to the US sanctions within the next 60 days, failing which it will be forced to retract from the nuclear deal.
The attention of the international community has now shifted to the increasing rhetoric of war among the parties involved. The US has announced that it is sending a warship ‘USS Arlington’ and a ‘Patriot’ battery to Central Command (CENTCOM) for deployment in the Persian Gulf. In response, in an official statement, Tehran has said the US warships in the Persian Gulf will be the target in case of a war. Meanwhile, the incident of sabotage against Saudi oil tankers off the coast of Fujaira in the UAE has led to increased concern among the Arabian Gulf countries of possible involvement of rogue elements in targeting the interests of these countries. The news of two oil production stations being targeted inside Saudi Arabia through drone attacks has further heightened the premonitions of the Gulf States.
In the light of this, the debate within Saudi Arabia and the UAE has shifted to the need for targeted action against Iran to dissuade it from attacking Saudi and Emirati interests in the region. Saudi Minister of State for Foreign Affairs, Adel al-Jubeir, has said that though Saudi Arabia is not in favour of war, it will respond to any Iranian provocation in kind. The Saudi concern of being targeted by Iran is reflected in the fact that King Salman has convened an urgent meeting of Arab and Gulf states in Mecca on 30 May, to be held in conjunction with the forthcoming Islamic Summit, to discuss the situation and evolve a collective response.
Given the growing war of words between Riyadh and Tehran, a limited conflict or even a full-fledged war cannot be completely ruled out. This would not only be disastrous for the region but also affect the entire world, especially the Asian economies, that depend on oil imports from the region for their energy security.
India has strongly condemned the drone attacks targeting oil installations in Saudi Arabia and has reiterated the resolve to fight terrorism and violence in all its forms and manifestations. New Delhi’s stand on the situation in the Persian Gulf is clear. It has been urging the regional adversaries in the Persian Gulf to resolve their differences amicably and not resort to war. India has strong interests in the region and has good bilateral ties with all the Gulf countries. Besides, the significance of the region for its energy security, India has over 8.5 million citizens living in the Gulf Cooperation Countries (GCC) and any serious escalation will deeply affect India’s interests.
In the given circumstances, it is important that the global community push for a diplomatic initiative to prevent the war of words escalating into a conflict because a war in the Persian Gulf has the capacity to escalate into a wider regional or global conflict.
Script: Dr. Mohd. Muddassir quamar, Strategic Analyst on West Asia
The attention of the international community has now shifted to the increasing rhetoric of war among the parties involved. The US has announced that it is sending a warship ‘USS Arlington’ and a ‘Patriot’ battery to Central Command (CENTCOM) for deployment in the Persian Gulf. In response, in an official statement, Tehran has said the US warships in the Persian Gulf will be the target in case of a war. Meanwhile, the incident of sabotage against Saudi oil tankers off the coast of Fujaira in the UAE has led to increased concern among the Arabian Gulf countries of possible involvement of rogue elements in targeting the interests of these countries. The news of two oil production stations being targeted inside Saudi Arabia through drone attacks has further heightened the premonitions of the Gulf States.
In the light of this, the debate within Saudi Arabia and the UAE has shifted to the need for targeted action against Iran to dissuade it from attacking Saudi and Emirati interests in the region. Saudi Minister of State for Foreign Affairs, Adel al-Jubeir, has said that though Saudi Arabia is not in favour of war, it will respond to any Iranian provocation in kind. The Saudi concern of being targeted by Iran is reflected in the fact that King Salman has convened an urgent meeting of Arab and Gulf states in Mecca on 30 May, to be held in conjunction with the forthcoming Islamic Summit, to discuss the situation and evolve a collective response.
Given the growing war of words between Riyadh and Tehran, a limited conflict or even a full-fledged war cannot be completely ruled out. This would not only be disastrous for the region but also affect the entire world, especially the Asian economies, that depend on oil imports from the region for their energy security.
India has strongly condemned the drone attacks targeting oil installations in Saudi Arabia and has reiterated the resolve to fight terrorism and violence in all its forms and manifestations. New Delhi’s stand on the situation in the Persian Gulf is clear. It has been urging the regional adversaries in the Persian Gulf to resolve their differences amicably and not resort to war. India has strong interests in the region and has good bilateral ties with all the Gulf countries. Besides, the significance of the region for its energy security, India has over 8.5 million citizens living in the Gulf Cooperation Countries (GCC) and any serious escalation will deeply affect India’s interests.
In the given circumstances, it is important that the global community push for a diplomatic initiative to prevent the war of words escalating into a conflict because a war in the Persian Gulf has the capacity to escalate into a wider regional or global conflict.
Script: Dr. Mohd. Muddassir quamar, Strategic Analyst on West Asia
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